Shocking Jump in Boise Idaho Home Prices (July 2024 Update)

Boise, Idaho home prices have completely recovered from the lows that we hit a year and a half ago. And we have essentially regained all the way back to the highs that we hit in May of 2022. This is your market update for the Boise, Idaho real estate market of July, 2024. Hey everyone, Curtis Chism here doing this video a little bit differently.

I'm here in my backyard. You can see my wife's beautiful garden behind me. I'll drop a photo of it in the newsletter here. And in this video, I just wanted to go over exactly what's happening with home prices, both in Boise, Ada County, which makes up the surrounding cities around Boise, like Meridian and Eagle and a few others, and also touching on Canyon County.

And what's remarkable is that home prices have completely recovered despite very high mortgage rates. Now mortgage rates really are not insanely high. They're actually on par and average with historical interest rates. The problem is, is that home prices have skyrocketed so much over the past four years that even though mortgage rates are considered average,

it just makes your mortgage payment rather unaffordable for most people. And that's what most people are struggling with. But despite that home prices have recovered. There's a lot of reasons for that. Remarkably low inventory however, inventory is beginning to rise. So we'll see how things start to shift.

And there's a lot of rumblings about interest rates coming down, probably by the end of the year, as we head into election season, looks like we're heading for a recession. The job market's getting weaker. That's going to start driving interest rates down. If that happens, certainly could see home prices continue to rise because for every 1 percent drop in mortgage rates, you see about 5 million more potential buyers that are eligible that can enter the market nationwide.

So despite a recession and potential job losses that gets wiped out by the number of new home buyers that can enter the market. Now, what we're seeing here specifically in Boise and Ada County. Home prices hit a median price of 570, 000. Now, the high that we hit back in May of 2022, just over two years ago was 602, 000.

So you're saying Curtis, you just said that we completely recovered. Clearly we haven't. Well, let's break it down a little bit more. So we've almost recovered, but if you look specifically at the resale market, which is two thirds of the market here in the Boise, Idaho area, the other one third being new construction, resale homes have hit 600, 000.

Now the high that we hit in May of 2022.  Again, over two years ago for resale homes was 586, 000. So resale homes have actually climbed higher than the high that we hit two years ago when interest rates were just 3%. And now we're sitting around mortgage rates with 7%. And we have surpassed the high of two years ago.

It's absolutely incredible. In fact, we saw the biggest single jump in home prices this past month than we have ever seen here in Boise, Idaho. 60, 000 increase for resale homes from 540, 000 to 600, 000. Now just two months ago in March, we did see at the time, what was the largest single month jump, which was from 490, 000 to 546, 000, 56, 000 jump. It fell back to 540, 000 in April.

May timeframe, and then it's gone up from 540 to 600, 000 gain, it's 11 percent in just one month. It's 22 percent since the low, another low that we hit in February, so 22 percent gain, 110, 000 gain since February of 2024. to June of 2024. We're at the end of July that I'm recording this video. We'll have new data in about three weeks for what's happening in July.

Now what's causing that overall number of 570, 000 instead of that 600, 000. Well, the what's dragging on it right now is new construction sales, but you're still doing well. But the median price for new construction sales is just 525, 000. That is way off the high that we saw back in May of 2022, which was 690, 000 for a new construction home.

So a significant spread in the new construction that's makes up one third of the market in the Boise area. And that's dragging down that overall price. From 600, 000 for resale to an average of 570, 000. Now what I'm seeing is that builders are offering major incentives to continue to move homes and they're selling quite rapidly and it seems to be accelerating and they're building a lot more affordable homes because people just are not willing to pay the higher prices for homes.

In that seven, eight, nine hundred plus thousand range and that is where homes are struggling, especially in the resale is in that seven, eight hundred, nine hundred thousand dollar range over a million dollars, actually moving fairly well, kind of the more luxury market here in the Boise area. People still have money, they can still afford to buy and sell those homes.

But that middle ground of that 700 to a million range, it's a little bit of a bloodbath right now. And it's a lot harder to sell those homes. They're just moving slower sub 600, 000. They're moving much faster. So a lot of the builders have seen that and adjusted or selling a lot more homes. in that price range.

You're seeing a lot of rapid home sales with builders like Hubble, Lennar and CBH and Hayden homes for those more affordable homes. That's a big part of the market and it's what people can certainly afford, but on the resale doing a lot better at that 600, 000 mark. Briefly touching on Canyon County. It's doing quite well, but much more conservative and stable in terms of home prices.

It has regained its value completely as well. It's sitting at 425, 000 for the median price of homes. Now that is still off the high of 476, 000 back in May. But again, for resale at 420, 000, the high was 425, 000 two years ago. So again, essentially completely recovered. Everyone asks about the market dip. When is it going to crash? I hate to tell you all, but it already crashed. Home prices fell 20 percent from May of 2022 through January of 2023. That was the market correction.

It has completely recovered. If you're waiting for the market to crash in Boise. It already happened. I hope you bought a home. If you didn't, it's not too late. It just means that we're back to where we were two years ago at higher interest rates, but I do not see the market crashing again. Now it could be that come this winter time, November, December, January, February, home price could come down a little bit because that's seasonal in Boise but if mortgage rates do come down, you're going to see prices rise