Should You Wait to Buy Until Rates Drop?

by Curtis Chism - Idaho

Introduction: The Big Question on Every Buyer’s Mind

If you’ve been thinking about buying a home in Idaho—or anywhere in the country—you’ve probably asked the same question I hear every single week from clients: Should I wait until mortgage rates drop before buying?

It’s a fair question. Rates have been higher than what we saw in 2020 and 2021, when they dipped into the 2%–3% range. Many buyers are hoping for those days to return. But here’s the truth: timing the housing market is like trying to time the stock market—you usually end up missing opportunities.

In this post, we’ll unpack everything you need to know about buying now vs. waiting. We’ll cover the current mortgage landscape, how rates affect affordability, what happens to home prices when rates change, and why your personal situation should guide your decision more than the headlines.

Understanding the Current Mortgage Rate Environment

Where Rates Stand in 2025

Mortgage rates in 2025 are hovering around the mid-6% to low-7% range, depending on your credit score, loan type, and down payment. That’s higher than pandemic-era lows but lower than historical highs.

For perspective, in the early 1980s, mortgage rates were over 18%. Even in the early 2000s, buyers regularly financed homes at 7–8%. The point? Today’s rates aren’t “cheap,” but they’re also not the worst we’ve ever seen.

What Drives Mortgage Rates

Rates are influenced by inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the overall economy. Even if the Fed signals potential cuts, rates don’t always drop as quickly as people hope. Waiting for the “perfect rate” may mean waiting years—and missing out on buying the right home now.

How Rates Impact Affordability

Monthly Payment Differences

Let’s break it down. Suppose you’re buying a $500,000 home in Meridian with 10% down:

At 6.5%, your monthly principal and interest is around $2,844.
At 5.5%, it drops to about $2,552.
At 7.5%, it jumps to roughly $3,259.

Yes, rates matter. But so do home prices.

The Rate vs. Price Tradeoff

Here’s the kicker: when rates drop, demand skyrockets. More buyers flood the market, which pushes home prices up. That means waiting for a 1% lower rate may not actually save you money if the price of the home climbs $20K, $30K, or more.

What Happens to Prices When Rates Drop

History as a Guide

We’ve seen this before. In late 2020 and early 2021, when rates dropped to record lows, buyer demand exploded. Homes in Boise, Eagle, and Meridian were selling with multiple offers, bidding wars, and prices jumped at record speed.

If rates fall in 2025, expect the same dynamic. Buyers waiting on the sidelines will rush back in, and affordability may not improve as much as you hope.

Low Inventory + Lower Rates = Price Pressure

Idaho still has limited housing supply. Builders are adding inventory, but not fast enough to meet demand from families relocating from California, Oregon, and Washington. When rates eventually dip, competition will likely heat up quickly.

Why Buying Now Might Make More Sense

Marry the Home, Date the Rate

One of my favorite sayings in real estate is: marry the home, date the rate. You can always refinance later if rates drop, but you can’t go back and buy the same home once someone else owns it.

Negotiation Power Today

Right now, with rates higher, there are fewer buyers in the market. That gives you leverage to negotiate:

Builder incentives (some are offering 2–3% toward rate buy-downs)
Seller-paid closing costs
More time to make decisions, instead of rushing in bidding wars

Check out current Boise new construction incentives to see how builders are making deals sweeter.

Building Equity Sooner

Every month you rent or wait, you’re not building equity. By buying now, even at a slightly higher rate, you’re investing in your future wealth. When rates drop, you can refinance and enjoy lower payments while already owning the asset.

When Waiting Does Make Sense

If Your Budget is Too Tight

If buying now would stretch your budget beyond comfort, waiting to save more or pay down debt may be the smarter move. A home should be a blessing, not a burden.

If You’re Unsure About Relocating

If you’re still deciding whether Idaho is the right move, it may be worth renting short-term while you explore different communities. Check out our Boise relocation guide to see where you might fit best.

Personal Situation vs. Market Conditions

Focus on Your Timeline

Are you relocating for work? Do you need more space for family? Are you tired of renting? Those factors matter far more than whether rates are 6.5% or 6%.

Buying as a Lifestyle Decision

Buying a home isn’t just about numbers. It’s about stability, community, and creating a life in a place you love. For many families moving to the Treasure Valley, the lifestyle upgrade outweighs short-term financial considerations.

Practical Tips for Buyers in 2025

Get Pre-Approved Early

Talk with a trusted local lender to see exactly what you can afford today. Don’t rely on national headlines—your personal rate will depend on your credit, income, and loan program.

Explore Rate Buy-Downs

Many builders and lenders offer temporary or permanent buy-downs, which can significantly reduce your rate in the first few years.

Work with a Realtor Who Knows Incentives

In my daily work, I negotiate with builders who are offering incentives like free upgrades or tens of thousands in credits. These can make buying today more affordable than you think.

Conclusion: Should You Wait or Buy Now?

Here’s the bottom line: waiting for rates to drop can be a gamble. If they do, prices are likely to climb. If they don’t, you’ve lost valuable time.

For many buyers, the smartest move is to buy when you find the right home that fits your life—and refinance later if rates improve. The key is having a clear plan, a trusted agent, and a lender who can guide you through the best options.

If you’re relocating to Idaho or just starting your home search, let’s connect. I help families every week navigate these exact decisions, and I’d be honored to guide you through yours.

📲 Call or text Curtis Chism at (208) 510-0427
📥 Ready to relocate remotely? Download our Boise Relocation Guide