Boise Home Prices Are Back + What the One Big Beautiful Bill Means for You

by Curtis Chism - Idaho

Happy 4th of July from Boise! Here’s What’s Really Happening in Our Market

As we celebrate Independence Day and the 249th birthday of the United States, there’s something else worth celebrating—Ada County’s housing market has fully recovered from the correction that began back in 2022.

I’m Curtis Chisholm, your local real estate expert here in the Treasure Valley. Whether you’re buying or selling, let’s dive into what the latest market data means for you—and what changes in interest rates and tax policy might mean for the road ahead.

Ada County: Housing Prices Back at the Peak

In May 2025, Ada County (which includes Boise, Meridian, Eagle, and Kuna) hit a median home price of $585,000—matching its previous high from May 2022.

That’s right:
📉 Prices dipped 20% between May 2022 and March 2023
📈 Now, three years later, we’ve fully bounced back

If you were holding out for a crash, you missed it. We had a correction, and the market has already rebounded.

Canyon County: More Affordable, but Not Far Behind

Canyon County (home to Nampa, Caldwell, and Middleton) came in with a median price of $410,000 in May—still about $15K short of its 2022 peak of $425,000. But activity is heating up there too, and affordability continues to draw buyers west.

Homes Are Selling—If Priced Right

Across both counties:

Resale homes average 23–26 days on market
New construction homes average 56 days (due to build timelines)
Inventory sits around a 3-month supply, which equals a balanced market

💡 Key takeaway: If your home is priced right and presented well, it can still sell quickly—even in a market with higher interest rates.

Overpriced homes? They’re sitting.
Well-priced homes? Some are going under contract within the first weekend.

If you're selling, consider pricing just under market to generate multiple offers and drive price up via a bidding war.

What’s in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Passed on July 3rd?

The House just passed a major tax bill—dubbed by some as the “Big Beautiful Bill”—loaded with benefits that could have real ripple effects on the housing market:

🔹 Expanded child tax credits (great news for families)
🔹 $5,000 tax credit for homeschoolers
🔹 Increased SALT deduction (from $10K to $40K)

This bill puts more money back into the hands of middle-class families, which could boost buying power and spur real estate activity as early as Q3 and Q4 of this year.

Trump’s Push for 1% Fed Rates—What Could Happen?

Former President Trump is calling for a drop in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate to 1%. Sounds like it would help mortgage rates, right?

🧠 Not so fast.

The Fed Funds Rate doesn’t directly control mortgage rates. In fact, when the Fed last cut rates in late 2024, mortgage rates actually went up by 1%.

Why? Because mortgage rates are tied to the bond market. Rate cuts can signal a looming recession, which can spook bond traders and push rates up, not down.

That said, if a cut triggers job growth and renewed economic confidence, mortgage rates could fall. But it’s no guarantee.

What This Means for You

✅ If you’re buying:
You’re in a sweet spot right now. Prices have stabilized, inventory is decent, and builders are still offering incentives on new construction. Don’t wait too long—any drop in rates could trigger another buying frenzy.

✅ If you’re selling:
Price strategically. A balanced market means buyers are pickier. Homes that are staged and priced correctly can still sell quickly, even with higher mortgage rates.

✅ If you’re relocating:
This is a great time to explore your options—especially between Ada and Canyon Counties, depending on your lifestyle and budget. Eagle, Kuna, and Middleton offer some fantastic value.

Final Thoughts from Curtis

It took three years, but the Boise housing market has made a full recovery—and it’s showing signs of gearing up for the next leg of growth.

With potential tax savings coming from the new bill and speculation about interest rate cuts on the horizon, the back half of 2025 could be an active time in real estate.

🎉 Happy 4th of July—and if you're ready to make a move, I'm here to help.

📞 Call/Text: 208-510-0427
📧 Email: info@chismteam.com