Boise Home Prices Are Back + What the One Big Beautiful Bill Means for You

As we celebrate Independence Day and the 249th birthday of the United States, there’s something else worth celebrating here in the Treasure Valley - our housing market has officially completed its recovery from the correction that began back in 2022.

I’m Curtis Chism, a local real estate expert based here in Boise. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching the market closely, this 4th of July update breaks down what the latest numbers really mean for you and how interest rates and tax policy could shape the rest of 2025.

Table of Contents

• Ada County: Prices Back at the Peak
• Canyon County: Affordable and Catching Up
• Homes Are Selling - If They’re Priced Right
• What’s in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Passed July 3rd
• Trump’s Push for 1% Fed Rates - What Could Happen
• What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Relocators
• Final Thoughts from Curtis

Ada County: Housing Prices Back at the Peak

In May 2025, Ada County - which includes Boise, Meridian, Eagle, and Kuna - hit a median home price of $585,000. That matches the previous all-time high set back in May 2022.

Here’s the important context:

• Prices dropped roughly 20% between May 2022 and March 2023
• The market stabilized through 2023 and 2024
• Now, three years later, values have fully recovered

This wasn’t a crash - it was a correction. And that correction is officially behind us.

Canyon County: More Affordable, but Not Far Behind

Canyon County - home to Nampa, Caldwell, and Middleton - continues to offer a more affordable entry point, but it’s following the same recovery pattern.

In May, the median home price in Canyon County came in around $410,000. That’s only about $15,000 below its 2022 peak of $425,000.

Affordability is still drawing buyers west, especially first-time buyers, relocators, and investors looking for better cash flow. Activity here has been picking up steadily as buyers compare value between Ada and Canyon Counties.

Homes Are Selling - If They’re Priced Right

Across both Ada and Canyon Counties, we’re seeing clear patterns in how homes are moving:

• Resale homes are averaging 23–26 days on market
• New construction homes average about 56 days, largely due to build timelines
• Inventory sits around a 3-month supply, which defines a balanced market

The takeaway is simple: homes that are priced correctly and presented well are still selling quickly. Some are even going under contract within the first weekend.

Overpriced homes, on the other hand, are sitting and chasing the market down.

If you’re selling, one of the strongest strategies right now is pricing just under market value to create urgency and competition. In many cases, that can drive multiple offers and push the final price higher.

What’s in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Passed on July 3rd?

The House recently passed a major tax package being referred to by some as the “Big Beautiful Bill.” While it still has steps ahead, it includes provisions that could meaningfully impact household finances and housing demand.

Highlights include:

• Expanded child tax credits
• A $5,000 tax credit for homeschoolers
• An increased SALT deduction, from $10,000 up to $40,000

If enacted fully, this legislation would put more money back into the hands of middle-class families. That increased buying power could translate into more real estate activity as early as Q3 and Q4 of 2025.

Trump’s Push for 1% Fed Rates - What Could Happen

Former President Trump has publicly called for the Federal Reserve to drop rates to 1%. On the surface, that sounds like it would immediately lower mortgage rates.

But here’s the nuance most headlines miss.

Mortgage rates are not directly controlled by the Fed Funds Rate. They’re driven primarily by the bond market. In fact, when the Fed cut rates in late 2024, mortgage rates actually increased by about 1%.

Why? Because rate cuts can signal economic concern, which makes bond investors nervous. That uncertainty can push long-term yields higher instead of lower.

If rate cuts lead to stronger job growth and economic confidence, mortgage rates could eventually fall. But there are no guarantees, and timing matters.

What This Means for You

If You’re Buying

You’re in a strong position right now. Prices have stabilized, inventory is reasonable, and builders are still offering incentives on new construction. If rates dip later this year, competition could heat up quickly.

If You’re Selling

Strategy matters more than ever. Buyers are selective, but well-staged and well-priced homes are still selling efficiently. Pricing too high can cost you time and leverage.

If You’re Relocating

This is an excellent time to compare lifestyle and budget options across Ada and Canyon Counties. Areas like Eagle, Kuna, and Middleton continue to offer strong value depending on what you want in a home and community.

Final Thoughts from Curtis

It took three years, but the Boise-area housing market has officially completed its recovery. And with potential tax relief on the horizon and ongoing conversations about interest rates, the second half of 2025 could be very active.

If you’re thinking about making a move - buying, selling, or relocating - timing and strategy matter. I’m here to help you navigate it with real data and clear advice.

🎉 Happy 4th of July from Boise

Call or text me at 208-510-0427
Email: info@chismteam.com

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